Model Lab

How good the forecasts are, and how strong the evidence is behind each claim.

Prospective record P1Interim

2 forecasts scored so far.

Since 9 November 2026, every forecast is locked before its match and scored once a completed result arrives. This is the only test the model could not have been tuned on. Figures stay interim until the single final evaluation on or after 15 July 2027; they decide nothing.

Recorded

Eligible

Scored

Waiting: no result yet (10)

Forecast activity

Forecasts locked per day since the record began, by model (UTC days).

Tournament startRound-aware

2026-11-091 day of the record so far2026-11-09

Scores so far

Log loss with a 95% interval, Brier score and how often the favourite won, on scored matches only.

Log loss: 0.8006; 1 matches
Brier: 0.3036
Favourite won: 0.0%
Matches: 1

Prediction ledger

Every forecast since the record began, newest first.

Locked	Match	Favourite	Model	Stage	Chain
9 Nov, 12:03	Linda Noskova v Coco Gauff FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells	Gauff 62.2%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#12 aaa0b0db
9 Nov, 12:03	Jessica Pegula v Marta Kostyuk FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells	Pegula 65.0%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#11 781fca13
9 Nov, 00:36	Elina Svitolina v Mirra Andreeva FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells	Andreeva 54.9%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#10 e035d830
9 Nov, 00:36	Aryna Sabalenka v Karolina Muchova FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells	Sabalenka 64.8%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#9 703c0eea
9 Nov, 00:36	Magda Linette v Janice Tjen Chennai Open	Tjen 57.6%	phase4-r0-v1	Scoredupset	#8 18a6f846
9 Nov, 00:36	Magda Linette v Janice Tjen Chennai Open	Tjen 55.1%	phase4-ts-v1	Scoredupset	#7 6b1b661d
9 Nov, 00:36	Borna Gojo v Tomas Machac Bybit Stockholm Open	Machac 58.3%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#6 2cf7b4b8
9 Nov, 00:36	Ugo Humbert v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Bybit Stockholm Open	Humbert 57.6%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#5 b204e82c
9 Nov, 00:36	Alex Michelsen v Yannick Hanfmann Bybit Stockholm Open	Michelsen 64.6%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#4 44d5dff1
9 Nov, 00:36	Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Max Dahlin Bybit Stockholm Open	Etcheverry 81.1%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#3 e494a05c
9 Nov, 00:36	James Duckworth v Cameron Norrie Bybit Stockholm Open	Norrie 60.9%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#2 9b5e099b
9 Nov, 00:36	Toby Samuel v Leo Borg Bybit Stockholm Open	Samuel 74.8%	phase4-ts-v1	Eligible	#1 bffe3519

Counting rule: for each match and model, the first stored forecast, if issued at least 0:30:00 before the scheduled start known when issued; sensitivity: the last forecast before the start. Code fingerprint 21911efc3219.