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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Max Dahlin, Bybit Stockholm Open

HardATP TourRound of 32Best of 3

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Seed 5Favourite

81.1%

Max Dahlin

18.9%
Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Etcheverryfavours Dahlin →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of 1.457 for Etcheverry, which is Etcheverry 81.1% and Dahlin 18.9%. No effect here: missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
EtcheverryDahlin
1603
Elo
1476
1608
Surface Elo
1473
64.9%
Service points won
61.6%
35.3%
Return points won
36.0%
−12 pts
Form vs Elo
−38 pts
6
Days since last match
51
242
Rated matches
2

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startEtcheverry 81.1%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#3 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
2b2c283d07fe7fd539dc7c4b456cc918ef8e025ad8eaf1c25966fcd50470b08c
Inputs (SHA-256)
7992063dc61b9afc714e7088ea856fb715a7ac1e43502bbf5aac2e10cb30ec10
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 3, chain hash e494a05cb5752fcb23a5d9ce558bc9cb3411ba78a3742fa8c6b0493e477f48e5

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • (3 runs)Round-aware: Neither player has played earlier in this tournament, so there is nothing for the round-aware update to add.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.