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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Borna Gojo v Tomas Machac, Bybit Stockholm Open

HardATP TourRound of 32Best of 3Completed

Borna Gojo

Won

41.7%

Tomas Machac

Favourite

58.3%

Final score 6-3 6-4

Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Gojofavours Machac →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of -0.336 for Gojo, which is Gojo 41.7% and Machac 58.3%. No effect here: missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
GojoMachac
1595
Elo
1687
1642
Surface Elo
1683
64.2%
Service points won
63.2%
34.8%
Return points won
37.2%
−26 pts
Form vs Elo
−26 pts
20
Days since last match
6
49
Rated matches
154

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startMachac 58.3%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#6 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
0f3e564ecf226578960986baa518354426ac9dd6ee533df393fd64d4595291c1
Inputs (SHA-256)
2236db54a1284e30465758546f6fc909ad52e5726495435774af8b17e916b7f1
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 6, chain hash 2cf7b4b8649e709f633993f04c287e0db019d2a4884564df64e219eef4ce2a98

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • (3 runs)Round-aware: Neither player has played earlier in this tournament, so there is nothing for the round-aware update to add.

Result reported by ESPN; each source is stored separately and a disagreement is never scored.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.