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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Jessica Pegula v Marta Kostyuk, FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells

HardWTA FinalsRound robinBest of 3

Jessica Pegula

Seed 5Favourite

65.0%

Marta Kostyuk

Seed 9

35.0%
Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Pegulafavours Kostyuk →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of 0.619 for Pegula, which is Pegula 65.0% and Kostyuk 35.0%. No effect here: missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
PegulaKostyuk
2000
Elo
1930
2040
Surface Elo
1909
61.0%
Service points won
58.7%
46.7%
Return points won
47.0%
+0 pts
Form vs Elo
−18 pts
27
Days since last match
20
446
Rated matches
288

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startPegula 65.0%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#11 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
94cff5deeace23dc5779789bfa4a678ec521ed7affed6fd1090a9be8d11610e3
Inputs (SHA-256)
07d8986d0cd72adbbe54e88d7ab8a131ba4d1e05b4d5dc77dabcefb8600fdf63
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 11, chain hash 781fca1389cdbb0f28259bfd4a3185efe0dc2eb2eddde6aefc283c0ce6cab77a

Decision log

  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Start time not confirmed yet. The forecast is issued once it is published, at least 30 minutes before play.
  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Round-aware: Start time not confirmed yet. The forecast is issued once it is published, at least 30 minutes before play.
  • Round-aware: Round-robin match: the round-aware update covers knockout rounds only.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.