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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Aryna Sabalenka v Karolina Muchova, FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells

HardWTA FinalsRound robinBest of 3

Aryna Sabalenka

Seed 2Favourite

64.8%

Karolina Muchova

Seed 7

35.2%
Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Sabalenkafavours Muchova →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of 0.609 for Sabalenka, which is Sabalenka 64.8% and Muchova 35.2%. No effect here: time since last match, missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
SabalenkaMuchova
2018
Elo
1960
2066
Surface Elo
1986
62.9%
Service points won
61.7%
46.4%
Return points won
44.2%
−11 pts
Form vs Elo
−10 pts
27
Days since last match
27
571
Rated matches
267

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startSabalenka 64.8%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#9 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
08b1fb0ddd8596ecf613d14fb4f6a0742ad0e965a54ccb8268bb22bae5728e12
Inputs (SHA-256)
50e8238cd0006ec57235726d853b9ae6c61a2c68773680554254c830107a4326
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 9, chain hash 703c0eea2f56787f6895e957c3df4d7b5156ff845e255eda220b518a24f8fb9c

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • (3 runs)Round-aware: Round-robin match: the round-aware update covers knockout rounds only.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.