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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Elina Svitolina v Mirra Andreeva, FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells

HardWTA FinalsRound robinBest of 3

Elina Svitolina

Seed 6

45.1%

Mirra Andreeva

Seed 3Favourite

54.9%
Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Svitolinafavours Andreeva →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of -0.195 for Svitolina, which is Svitolina 45.1% and Andreeva 54.9%. No effect here: missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
SvitolinaAndreeva
1904
Elo
1926
1909
Surface Elo
1938
59.0%
Service points won
60.2%
47.3%
Return points won
47.7%
−15 pts
Form vs Elo
−4 pts
27
Days since last match
39
697
Rated matches
190

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startAndreeva 54.9%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#10 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
e1b8f4c21e45f7cfbe1c389c70444bc1ea08fd61c3040e64f34644f86e0237f8
Inputs (SHA-256)
ece8925ee416a99b3116eeeb79fd376267ef93d4505a0d3cae8a03301f4a7c03
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 10, chain hash e035d8303286321f793f4cc9aa01ad481f39910c04226e9d8f0f99de9724b3e1

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • (3 runs)Round-aware: Round-robin match: the round-aware update covers knockout rounds only.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.