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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Linda Noskova v Coco Gauff, FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells

HardWTA FinalsRound robinBest of 3

Linda Noskova

Seed 8

37.8%

Coco Gauff

Seed 4Favourite

62.2%
Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Noskovafavours Gauff →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of -0.497 for Noskova, which is Noskova 37.8% and Gauff 62.2%. No effect here: time since last match, missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
NoskovaGauff
1960
Elo
2029
1967
Surface Elo
2080
62.2%
Service points won
59.3%
42.3%
Return points won
49.0%
+9 pts
Form vs Elo
+1 pts
39
Days since last match
39
203
Rated matches
401

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startGauff 62.2%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#12 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
5a1f36b2a784b6413be161e569a523a9d5a4faa5177d274e28ea6e6df7c187b8
Inputs (SHA-256)
30a38dbfa62e7dd82bcee844305335638e86f34faa967587efdda01b1b5d9b99
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 12, chain hash aaa0b0db22e707cd1704e2e0675bf7ade5f45df4f96a92dd05c23de10094c69d

Decision log

  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Start time not confirmed yet. The forecast is issued once it is published, at least 30 minutes before play.
  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Round-aware: Start time not confirmed yet. The forecast is issued once it is published, at least 30 minutes before play.
  • Round-aware: Round-robin match: the round-aware update covers knockout rounds only.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.