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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Toby Samuel v Leo Borg, Bybit Stockholm Open

HardATP TourRound of 32Best of 3

Toby Samuel

Favourite

74.8%

Leo Borg

25.2%
Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Samuelfavours Borg →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of 1.087 for Samuel, which is Samuel 74.8% and Borg 25.2%. No effect here: missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
SamuelBorg
1541
Elo
1492
1559
Surface Elo
1492
62.9%
Service points won
61.1%
36.9%
Return points won
35.4%
+13 pts
Form vs Elo
+8 pts
20
Days since last match
391
10
Rated matches
17

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startSamuel 74.8%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#1 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
425a680f65fbb10f11d3b2e2020cd88c944e31772444d037f686498e99bbc144
Inputs (SHA-256)
00a1982d9fed516c6fba7948388870f64000054781a2fc7673b3c034c754ff7e
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 1, chain hash bffe3519f8a66b220183a847446fcb197dba49adda1310294acd80195ca948d8

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • (3 runs)Round-aware: Neither player has played earlier in this tournament, so there is nothing for the round-aware update to add.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.