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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Ugo Humbert v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, Bybit Stockholm Open

HardATP TourRound of 32Best of 3Completed

Ugo Humbert

Seed 7WonFavourite

57.6%

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

42.4%

Final score 6-4 6-3

Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Humbertfavours Vallejo →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of 0.307 for Humbert, which is Humbert 57.6% and Vallejo 42.4%. No effect here: time since last match, missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
HumbertVallejo
1667
Elo
1582
1668
Surface Elo
1608
65.9%
Service points won
61.6%
36.1%
Return points won
37.2%
−28 pts
Form vs Elo
+16 pts
6
Days since last match
6
356
Rated matches
34

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startHumbert 57.6%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#5 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
e709652514b7ca13bdff66006789873819b3fbaa93d134c283f2ea41b4e0eebc
Inputs (SHA-256)
af666de4443605f84ca894eedc9aef8751c854c35e655b91887f632a1c0a9f92
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 5, chain hash b204e82c986df80fd31367ef228426d8faa0f23dc9f1b221724be8864dbf59be

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • (2 runs)Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • (3 runs)Round-aware: Neither player has played earlier in this tournament, so there is nothing for the round-aware update to add.

Result reported by ESPN; each source is stored separately and a disagreement is never scored.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.