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Matchup DNAUpdated recently

Alex Michelsen v Yannick Hanfmann, Bybit Stockholm Open

HardATP TourRound of 32Best of 3Completed

Alex Michelsen

Seed 6WonFavourite

64.6%

Yannick Hanfmann

35.4%

Final score 6-2 6-3

Uses only information from before the tournament began.phase4-ts-v1Issued Scored forecastHow the models differ

Why the model leans this way

Tournament start
← favours Michelsenfavours Hanfmann →

Hover or focus a bar for its exact value and the inputs behind it.

The bars add up to log-odds of 0.601 for Michelsen, which is Michelsen 64.6% and Hanfmann 35.4%. No effect here: missing serve data, unranked.

Log-odds are the model's own units; near 50%, 0.1 is about 2.5 percentage points. Inputs overlap (overall and surface Elo especially), so one bar is not that input's independent effect, and none of this is a cause.

Player comparison

As the model saw them
MichelsenHanfmann
1774
Elo
1667
1829
Surface Elo
1670
63.7%
Service points won
65.4%
37.6%
Return points won
35.4%
−1 pts
Form vs Elo
−8 pts
6
Days since last match
13
181
Rated matches
219

Values stored with this forecast, as the model saw them. Bars compare the two players on each row; rows use different units, and rows that can be negative show values only.

Forecast history

Every stored version
  1. Tournament startMichelsen 64.6%Scored

Filled points are the scored (first-issued) forecasts; hollow points are later revisions. Points are separate stored forecasts, not a continuous line.

VerificationStored before the scheduled startCode matches the frozen protocol#4 in the ledgerShow records
Tournament start · issued
Prediction id
113c92461061f75e5676a15146f3de0ed678848997c03e487476303cccae6fd8
Inputs (SHA-256)
4356fcecbc406868c7bb46f55f5b322bd302caf002e1553863e5ce969db446d6
Model artifact
a34233a3876d89fe3cd70c782b0d0a31de9192ad0895e05332c7bb5a93fd246c
Code
21911efc3219c875e35155290de8ff29c257e182e5c9b99785cc99daa58981e8
Ledger
position 4, chain hash 44d5dff122424593b003e7de23870257cdaf5a296fbfca486ebe96e61ea847ee

Decision log

  • Tournament start: Forecast issued.
  • Tournament start: Checked again: inputs unchanged, so no new forecast.
  • Tournament start: No forecast: the match had already started when it was first seen.
  • (2 runs)Round-aware: Neither player has played earlier in this tournament, so there is nothing for the round-aware update to add.
  • Round-aware: No forecast: the match had already started when it was first seen.

Result reported by ESPN; each source is stored separately and a disagreement is never scored.

These checks show that a forecast was recorded before the match and has not changed since. They say nothing about whether it was right; that is what the Model Lab measures. Every forecast is also listed in the Forecast Archive.